"Forecast models struggle with predicting a splitting of the vortex more than a week in advance. The polar vortex might split further in about 10 days, "but it's unclear if this will happen," Butler said. During that time, it began to (but didn't completely) split, Cohen said. 5, the polar vortex's counter-clockwise winds reversed direction (a clue that a sudden atmospheric warming event had happened) and the vortex wandered from its usual location centered over the North Pole, toward Europe and the North Atlantic, Butler said. Related: Images of melt: Earth's vanishing ice caps It's also possible that the extreme bomb cyclone (a rapidly-forming winter storm with hurricane-strength winds) in the North Pacific a few days ago, contributed to the SSW, "but that will have to be investigated further," she said. This high-pressure, low-pressure duo is known to disrupt the stratosphere, where the polar vortex lives. "Over the last few weeks, there was a persistent high-pressure system over much of the North Atlantic and northern Europe/Asia, and a low-pressure system over the North Pacific," Butler told Live Science in an email. It's possible the SSW was caused by a high-pressure, low-pressure system, said Amy Butler, a research scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Chemical Sciences Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado. SSWs happen an average of six times every 10 years, and right now we're experiencing a big SSW, The Washington Post reported. SSWs happen when large-scale atmospheric waves associated with weather systems reach into the stratosphere and disrupt the polar vortex, causing it to slow down and heat up as much as 90 degrees Fahrenheit (50 degrees Celsius) within a few days.Ĭohen noted that SSWs can be triggered by weather conditions associated with the Arctic's disappearing sea ice. It's also accepted that so-called sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events can weaken the polar vortex and make it teeter around. Littell's Living Age.Not everyone agrees with this increased-Siberian-snow-and-wobbly-polar-vortex connection, but it is clear that a weakened polar vortex leads to colder winters in certain parts of the Northern Hemisphere. "The polar vortex is nothing new-in fact, it's thought that the term first appeared in an 1853 issue of E. "Often during winter in the Northern Hemisphere, the polar vortex will become less stable and expand, sending cold Arctic air southward over the United States with the jet stream (right globe). The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration explains: "The term vortex refers to the counter-clockwise flow of air that helps keep the colder air close to the poles (left globe). This year, however, the vortex has weakened, allowing the freezing northern air to head south, leading to the frigid weather. Video credit: Tao Wang, NASA/JPL-Caltech.
The polar vortex is a huge area of low pressure and cold air that typically resides surrounding both of the Earth's poles. Animation showing surface air temperature maps with geopotential height contours (in km at the 200 hPa pressure surface) overlaid over North America and the Arctic from December 13th to 22nd, 2022, showing the breaking polar vortex and extremely cold air plunging into the US.
N8gSXMV616- NWS Weather Prediction Center February 11, 2021 It's still too early for specifics, but widespread and major impacts are possible. Want more winter weather!? Next week may have plenty as a complex weather system is forecast to bring snow, sleet, and freezing rain from the Southern Plains to New England.
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